PREDICTION: Rep. Allyson Schwartz Likely To Win PA Democrat Primary In Governors Race

Fall has moved its way in, and slowly we wind down to the election in November.  Not as many elections are occurring in Pennsylvania as other places.  And as our neighbor to the south wind up their gubernatorial race, Pennsylvania prepares itself for another gubernatorial race.

At the moment there are no primary challengers that Gov. Tom Corbett will have to face.  His only real credible challenge was with Montgomery County Commissioner Bruce Castor who gave him a hard time in the last PA Governor’s primary.  But Castor announced that he will not run in the primary against Gov. Corbett around mid August after much speculation.

Now that the Republican side is set, we now look at the crowd of Democrat hopefuls who are looking to win the primary to take a swing at the incumbent.  And right now, the leader of the pack is Rep. Allyson Schwartz, and that is not very surprising.  In Pennsylvania, name recognition gets you a long way, and that is something that Rep. Schwartz has, while most of her Democrat counterparts lack in that area.  The other Democrat challengers are former environmental official Katie McGinty, York county businessman Tom Wolf (former member of Gov. Ed Rendell’s cabinet) and state Treasurer Rob McCord.  With the possible entry of former state Auditor General Jack Wagner after he lost his primary bid in Pittsburgh mayoral race, but that is not confirmed.

In a poll taken in mid August by  Benenson Strategy Group, the representative held a double-digit lead over her competitors.  It goes as follows.

  • Rep. Allyson Schwartz – 34%
  • Katie McGinty – 15%
  • Tom Wolf – 11%
  • Rob McCord – 10%

So, as of right now, I feel confident in predicting that Rep. Allyson Schwartz is going to be the Democratic nominee in the Pennsylvania gubernatorial race.  Part of my reasoning behind this is that there has been a big upswing with females engaging in politics, both on the state and national level, just look to Arizona, New Mexico and Oklahoma just to name a few.  And also, as I mentioned before she has the best name recognition which helps her immensely in a dense field of candidates.

Rep. Schwartz, I feel, is Gov. Corbett’s worst nightmare as she seems to be a strong candidate and among the field of Democratic candidates, will be the hardest person for him to face.

Though as of right now, Gov. Corbett’s chances for reelection are not looking to good as his disapproval rating is currently hovering in the mid 50 percentage range.  Don’t get me wrong, I’m a Republican Conservative, but if I’m to stay true to myself, I must say that this race is shaping up to be an ugly one.

NOTE: If Jack Wagner does enter the primary race, that may shake things up a bit.

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