Almost two weeks before the election, Mitt Romney has shown to be gaining much ground in the polls nationally and in one particular swing state. In a recent survey by Gallup, Romney jumped ahead of the president, leading 52% – 45% among likely voters. This was a big jump for the Republican candidate who has been struggling with a back and forth race for past month or two. Gallup’s poll shows the biggest lead for Romney yet.
While Mitt Romney gains ground nationally, he has also been closing the gap in many swing states. One in particular is Pennsylvania. A predominantly Democrat leaning state, where the race has been tightening. And the most recent survey done by Pennsylvania based polling firm Susquehanna Polling and Research, has found that Mitt Romney has taken the lead, 49% – 45%. This marks the first time that any pubic polling has shown Romney leading in the Keystone State.
This is great news for Mitt Romney since he has spent little time in Pennsylvania, yet his numbers have continued to grow. Whereas in 2008, then Republican presidential nominee John McCain blitzed the state with ad’s and still lost the state by ten points. If Romney could manage to win Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes and one other swing state, then it would win him the election.
The following is from Susquehanna’s press release on the recent polling data -
This is clear evidence the debates have not only helped win swing and undecided voters, but are neutralizing the negative perceptions Pennsylvanians had of Romney from negative TV ads sponsored by Obama supported super PAC‘s. Furthermore, regional support shows Romney has managed to run up big margins in western PA with conservative Democrats and at the same time make significant inroads in the socially-moderate, vote-rich Philadelphia suburbs where Romney now leads 48-46. Winning the suburban Philadelphia collar counties would be a historic accomplishment since no Republican presidential nominee has carried these counties in decades.
In Susquehanna’s earlier survey in the beginning of October where Romney was behind the president by two points, the polling firm stated that Romney was ahead in Allegheny County. As the polling firm said, it would be a huge accomplishment for Romney to win the collar counties. And really, it would be major if Romney could win Pennsylvania. The last Republican presidential nominee that won PA was then Vice President George Bush Sr. in the 1988 election.
Just some additional information from Susquehanna’s survey. Fifty-Two percent of the voters in the survey were women. This is bad news for Pres. Obama as he has been trying to claim the vote of American women. A voting block that has been increasingly moving toward Mitt Romney.
Currently, Susquehanna is the only polling firm showing Romney ahead in PA, but other firms like Quinnipiac have been showing a tightening race in the state as well. So it might only be a matter of time before other polls show the same shift.
Here is a link to Susquehanna’s full survey results.
Recently the Republican National Committee has moved 60 additional people into Pennsylvania. Also, this past weekend Vice Presidential nominee Paul Ryan made a sudden trip to the Pittsburgh area which garnered around 800 people.
All of this meaning that the RNC and Romney’s campaign see Pennsylvania as winnable in the election.
- Now Mitt Romney Is Closing In On Obama In Pennsylvania (businessinsider.com)
- New poll shows Romney ahead in … Pennsylvania? Update: GOP closing early voter gap in Ohio; Update: Romney leads by four in Susquehanna poll of PA (hotair.com)
- Romney Now Up Seven in Gallup (52-45); Swing State Polls Swing Toward Mitt (rushlimbaugh.com)