I have heard this question asked recently, and so I decided to look into it. And after tinkering with map on 270towin.com. I believe that it is possible for Mitt Romney to win the general election without Florida. But it would make it a tight race.
Local polling in Pennsylvania, which has not voted for a Republican since Bush Sr., shows that Pres. Obama’s lead has come well within the margin of error within the last month. Also with Pennsylvania being coal country, that could help the state go to Romney. The win in Pennsylvania also depends on how bad the voter fraud is, as was the case in 2008. And also if the states Voter ID law us upheld, which is not looking to good.
The gap has also closed in Ohio, another battleground state and the one that was the deciding factor in Obama’s 2008 victory. It is very likely that Romney will take Ohio.
Other states like Michigan and Wisconsin are rather close, but could possibly be lost. Below I have a picture of a close race in which Romney loses Florida but wins Ohio and Pennsylvania. This would certainly make the race “nail bitingly” close.
As I said, this is what a close race would look like IF Romney is not able to win Florida. We are still over 40 days away from the election and a lot can happen in that span of time. It is likely that Romney will take the Sunshine state, but I wanted to make the point that he could lose it and still win the election.
Now it could swing visa-versa and Romney loses Pennsylvania but wins Florida, and he would still win. But losing both, or either in a combination with Ohio would result in a loss. This of course would if the race is close, which is unclear right now.
Just note on the election. I know that a lot if not all of you have seen the election prediction from the college in Colorado, and they are very reputable as they have been accurate since 1980. But I do not believe that Romney will win Wisconsin. And Michigan I am unsure about. Right now I would say that he is going to lose his home state.
However it goes, whether it is going to be a nail biter of a race like in 2000 when Bush beat out Gore, or a landslide victory as in 1980 when Reagan defeated Pres. Carter. It is going to be very interesting to watch unfold.
Shawn_the_Writer
